Search for: All records

Few transformations in Earth systems are as dramatic as those currently occurring in the Arctic. We reveal the emergence of a new route regime in response to the evolving context of climate change and human pressures. This paradigm shift presents both opportunities for Arctic exploration and maritime trade, as well as risks for marine ecosystems and coastal communities. It underscores the need for concerted efforts to recalibrate the associated legal framework. 

The sea ice of Article 234 of UNCLOS represents not the physical ice of the Arctic Ocean but a negotiated myth of ice as it affects the Arctic littoral states. The stability of this prescription is threatened by anthropogenic climate change causing a preferential evacuation of ice from the eastern Arctic compared to the western Arctic, as well as expectations for a possible future ice-free Arctic. This is leading to an intensification of claims on marine space. The irreducible uncertainties of the future trajectory of Arctic change demands a dynamic response. The myth of Article 234 will ultimately align with the complexities of the phenomenon of disappearing ice. It is in the dynamic nature of international law that prescriptions do not remain constant and neither does ice. 

Sea ice levies an impost on maritime navigability in the Arctic, but ice cover diminution due to anthropogenic climate change is generating expectations for improved accessibility in coming decades. Projections of sea ice cover retreating preferentially from the eastern Arctic suggest key provisions of international law of the sea will require revision. Specifically, protections against marine pollution in ice-covered seas enshrined in Article 234 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea have been used in recent decades to extend jurisdictional competence over the Northern Sea Route only loosely associated with environmental outcomes. Projections show that plausible open water routes through international waters may be accessible by midcentury under all but the most aggressive of emissions control scenarios. While inter- and intraannual variability places the economic viability of these routes in question for some time, the inevitability of a seasonally ice-free Arctic will be attended by a reduction of regulatory friction and a recalibration of associated legal frameworks. 

Abstract We present a tracking algorithm for synoptic to meso- α -scale Arctic cyclones that differentiates between cold- and warm-core systems. The algorithm is applied to the ERA5 reanalysis north of 60°N from 1950 to 2019. In this dataset, over one-half of the cyclones that meet minimum intensity and duration thresholds can be classified as cold-core systems. Systems that undergo transition, typically from cold to warm core, make up 27.2% of cyclones and are longer lived. The relatively infrequent warm-core cyclones are more intense and are most common in winter. The Arctic-wide occurrence of maritime cyclones has increased from 1979 to 2019 when compared with the period from 1950 to 1978, but the trends have high interannual variability. This shift has ramifications for transportation, fisheries, and extractive industries, as well as impacts on communities across the Arctic.